The researchers surveyed more than 1,000 New Zealanders to find out how they viewed the Government’s responsibility for dealing with extreme risks.

The senior researcher, Professor Nick Wilson, from the Faculty of Medicine’s Department of Public Health at the University of Otago, Wellington, says there is majority support across the political spectrum for the Government to take a leadership role in planning for such serious risks.

Sixty per cent of those surveyed were also in favour of the Government setting up a dedicated commission or agency to monitor and report on extreme risks to the country, such as the threats posed by bioweapons, nuclear war or rogue artificial intelligence.

The research findings are published in the international journal, Risk Analysis.

Professor Wilson says Aotearoa is poorly equipped to cope with global shocks, despite being relatively well placed geographically to weather them.

“New Zealand’s reliance on imported fuels to power the agricultural machinery used to produce food is one example where the country is vulnerable, despite its current ability to produce enough food to feed everyone.

“There are significant gaps in our national planning for high-impact risks, making the contrast between strong public support for planning and the Government’s limited preparedness quite striking.”

Professor Wilson says New Zealand needs to go beyond the hazards it currently plans for, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and severe space weather, to address all major catastrophic risks.

“While the probability of any one catastrophic event is low in a given year, the potential consequences are so severe that preventive efforts and proactive planning are essential.”

Professor Wilson says the Government should develop a national strategy for global catastrophic risks, building on the National Risk Framework, but extending it to worst-case scenarios.

“We also need a dedicated agency or commission, either domestic or in partnership with Australia, to monitor, assess and coordinate responses to risks and we need to invest in resilience measures, such as energy security, to ensure we can continue to produce enough food.”

Professor Wilson says New Zealand’s geographic location makes it one of the countries most likely to be able to survive global catastrophes, such as a nuclear winter caused by a large-scale nuclear war or a volcanic winter following a major volcanic eruption like that which occurred in 1816 when there was a ‘year without a summer’ after the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia.

“But this survival advantage will only matter if we have invested in resilience and governance structures in advance,” he says. 

“Public opinion is clear: most citizens want the Government to prepare for the unimaginable before it is too late.”