Markets: Analysis
Minister’s letters: Mildly positive or just virtue signalling?
5 Feb 2026
By Liz Kivi | The carbon market was buoyed slightly yesterday, after letters between the Government and the Climate Change Commission were proactively released.
Carbon News updates ten-year NZU forward curve
27 Jan 2026
Carbon News has updated its ten-year NZU forward curve, following a recent fall in carbon spot prices.
Why did NZUs fall a further $5 over the holiday period?
26 Jan 2026
By Liz Kivi | NZU prices dropped a further $5, or 14%, from an already weak base over the holiday period, with the carbon price falling to its lowest in five years in mid-January.
Carbon News publishes ten-year NZU forward curve
10 Dec 2025
Carbon News has published a new ten-year NZU forward curve mapping how carbon prices could evolve through to 2035 under a range of policy and market conditions.
Carbon price’s dead cat bounce
12 Nov 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price rebounded briefly in what looked like a ‘dead cat bounce’ last week, following the Government’s announcement it was unlinking the Emissions Trading Scheme from international climate targets.
Another hit to market as Govt uncouples ETS from international climate target
5 Nov 2025
By Liz Kivi | The Government’s surprise move to break the connection between the Emissions Trading Scheme and New Zealand’s Paris Agreement climate target is a brutal hit to confidence in an already moribund market.
‘Plain old dull’: NZU market continues to limp sideways
24 Oct 2025
By Liz Kivi | The NZU market has been “plain old dull” in recent months, with activity driven mainly by credit opportunities or a specific need to raise cash, according to Lizzie Chambers of trading platform Carbon Match.
Will govt’s light touch approach lead to higher carbon prices?
3 Oct 2025
By Liz Kivi | Carbon market watchers are hoping the government’s plan for the electricity sector will eventually lead to higher carbon prices, with the secondary market still trading sideways for the longest time in its history.
Carbon price steady after failed quarterly auction
16 Sep 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price has continued to trade in its familiar moribund range in the high $50s following last week’s failed quarterly auction, with ample supply still trading on the secondary market at about $10 below this year’s $68 auction floor.
Carbon market still weak despite govt confirming tighter auction supply
28 Aug 2025
By Liz Kivi | The government’s commitment to keeping Emissions Trading Scheme auction volumes tight to 2030 has done little to buoy carbon prices, with an underwhelming response from the market following last week’s announcement.
Carbon prices slide as market awaits ETS decision
1 Aug 2025
By Liz Kivi | Volatility has returned to the secondary carbon market, with prices sliding again after plateauing in recent weeks, as the market waits for government decisions on Emissions Trading Scheme settings.
NZ voluntary carbon market’s sad state
14 Jul 2025
By John O’Brien | OPINION: A combination of scandals, challenging economic times, and cheaper offshore carbon credits, mean that the domestic voluntary carbon market in New Zealand remains absolutely tiny.
Bearish sentiment lingers for carbon market
11 Jul 2025
By Liz Kivi | The compliance carbon market could be set for a gradual upward trajectory, however unsold volume from the quarterly Emissions Trading Scheme auctions continues to act as ‘a price ceiling,’ according to an expert.
Carbon credits stockpile down: latest figures
7 Jul 2025
By Liz Kivi | The number of NZUs held in private accounts, often called "the stockpile", dropped 11 million tonnes in the past year, according to the latest figures.
Carbon price grinds higher - where to from now?
30 Jun 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price has continued to grind slowly higher since this month’s failed auction, with prices at their highest since March, although still languishing well below this year’s auction floor price.
Carbon auction fails again
18 Jun 2025
By Liz Kivi | As predicted, today’s carbon auction failed to attract any bidders, with the secondary market languishing at nearly 20% below the minimum auction price.
Carbon auction odds-on to fail
13 Jun 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price has rallied slightly in recent weeks, however with secondary market prices still hovering around the $57 mark, well below this year’s $68 auction floor price, next week’s Emissions Trading Scheme auction looks set to fail.
Forecast points to a significant drop in NZU stockpile in 2026
21 May 2025
By Clive Bradbury | ANALYSIS: The Crown’s latest forecasts of supply and demand suggest we could see a significant drop in the NZU stockpile in 2026, with uncertainty around forestry playing a large part in the equation.
Carbon price up but June auction still tipped to fail
15 May 2025
The carbon price has recovered somewhat as forestry selling eases, however NZUs are still changing hands on the secondary market at well below the $68 auction floor.
Broker urges govt to reject Climate Commission’s advice
2 May 2025
The Climate Change Commission's recommendation to increase carbon auction volumes risks undermining market confidence, distorting price discovery, and weakening the Emission Trading Scheme's core function, according to Marex.
Experts question Climate Commission’s advice
30 Apr 2025
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice on Emissions Trading Scheme auction settings is lacking important information, and fails to take into account the commission’s own advice to update the country’s climate targets, says an expert.
Carbon price slumps for fourth week in a row
29 Apr 2025
Carbon prices on the secondary market dropped for the fourth consecutive week last week, with NZUs changing hands at $20 below this year’s auction floor price of $68.
Commission’s plan to increase ETS auction units could lead to lower prices
24 Apr 2025
Experts are criticising the Climate Change Commission’s proposal to increase the amount of carbon units available at auction, while the market is still plagued by low prices and seems oversupplied.
Moribund carbon price underlines Emissions Trading Scheme’s low integrity
22 Apr 2025
By Liz Kivi | Experts are blaming declining carbon prices on weak policy settings and the government’s unwillingness to tackle continuing problems with the Emissions Trading Scheme.
Carbon price nosedives
16 Apr 2025
The carbon price graph dropped off a cliff yesterday, down 6% overnight to a ten-month low amidst continued selling from forest owners.
ETS surplus volume likely to be reducing too slowly - new analysis
14 Apr 2025
Excess carbon units in the Emissions Trading Scheme - the ‘surplus’ in privately held accounts - look to be reducing more slowly than the Climate Change Commission's targeted annual reductions, according to new analysis.
ETS stockpile up nearly 7 million
8 Apr 2025
The stockpile of privately held Emissions Trading Scheme pollution permits increased 6.7 million to 157.1 million units in the three months to March 31, according to figures released by the Environmental Protection Authority yesterday.
Carbon market increasingly volatile
1 Apr 2025
Last week was 2025’s most volatile so far for the carbon market, with units changing hands below $60 all week, and even trading down to the low $50s.
Carbon price drops to 6-month low
26 Mar 2025
By Liz Kivi | The New Zealand Unit spot price has fallen dramatically in the wake of last week’s declined auction, with the Carbon News NZU Index closing at $54.67 yesterday, down 10% from prices above $60 at the start of last week.
Greens call for agriculture in, forestry out of ETS
20 Mar 2025
Yesterday's failed Emission's Trading Scheme auction is 'another indictment' on the government's climate credibility, says Green Party co-leader and climate change spokesperson Chloe Swarbrick.
First ETS auction of the year fails
19 Mar 2025
The first Emissions Trading Scheme auction of 2025 has failed to sell any 'pollution permits,' with all 1.5 million NZUs rolling over to the June auction.
Tomorrow's ETS auction likely 'non-event'
18 Mar 2025
The spot price in the compliance carbon market dropped even further at the end of last week, with market watchers predicting that tomorrow's auction is odds-on to sell nothing.
What next for carbon prices?
12 Mar 2025
NZUs are still hovering well below the auction price floor, with collateral due to be lodged by today for participants in the first Emissions Trading Scheme auction of 2025, on March 19.
Carbon auction unlikely to clear as spot price drops
11 Mar 2025
The carbon price on the spot market has dropped to its lowest level since December, with the first ETS auction of the year less than a week away now unlikely to sell any units at all.
Updates to ETS auction collateral methodology
27 Feb 2025
The Government has updated the NZ ETS Auctions collateral methodology effective from 19 March 2025.
Will March's carbon auction clear?
24 Feb 2025
With carbon prices on the secondary market trading in a tight range below the minimum auction price, it seems increasingly unlikely that March's Emissions Trading Scheme auction will clear.
Secondary market remains flat as carbon auction approaches
14 Feb 2025
With the first carbon auction of the year just over a month away, one broker is predicting trading will continue at prices below this year's $68 auction floor price.
Carbon price up - but still too low to drive decarbonisation
24 Jan 2025
Carbon prices on the secondary market went above the $64 mark yesterday for the first time since December’s partial auction clearance.
Emissions trading scheme surplus over-estimated, says EY
20 Dec 2024
The emissions trading scheme has about 22% fewer surplus units than government figures suggest, according to a new report.
What should carbon offsets really cost?
20 Dec 2024
By Jamie Heather | COMMENT: Today’s carbon prices would seem absurd in any other context.
Carbon market heading towards increased price tension?
17 Dec 2024
The carbon price has made a partial recovery, as new analysis shows greater tension in New Zealand's emissions trading scheme than current prices suggest.
Carbon price dips as dust settles after auction
10 Dec 2024
The carbon price has taken a dive since last week’s auction, down more than 6% on last week’s auction price.
Carbon price steady following partial auction clearance
5 Dec 2024
The carbon price stayed steady on the secondary market following yesterday’s partial auction clearance, where 7 million NZUs went unsold.
Final auction of the year partially clears
4 Dec 2024
More than 7 million pollution permits will fail to enter the register this year, with just under half of a possible 14.1 million units selling across all the Emissions Trading Scheme carbon auctions this year.
Auction preview: experts predict partial clearance tomorrow
3 Dec 2024
The secondary carbon market is trading just above the $64 auction floor, as tomorrow’s highly anticipated auction looms - the fourth and final of 2024.
Partial clearance possible at December auction
22 Nov 2024
The carbon price is hitting up against the $64 auction floor on the secondary market, with the government’s final quarterly auction for the year now less than two weeks away.
Carbon price predicted to rise after upcoming auction
14 Nov 2024
OPINION: Are NZUs set for a bump after the December auction? Nigel Brunel, managing director Marex New Zealand, thinks so.
Carbon price inching up as auction looms
7 Nov 2024
The carbon price is still inching up towards the auction floor, with the final auction for 2024 less than a month away. But the US election result means uncertain times for global environmental markets, according to an expert.
Verra’s plan to review carbon credits faster with fewer staff raises integrity concerns
4 Nov 2024
Verra’s new CEO said that “faster does not equal to compromise on integrity” – but independent carbon market experts are sceptical.
Stockpile and forestry set to drive carbon price
23 Oct 2024
Stockpile holders will have the power to set the NZU price in future, as the importance of the government’s carbon auctions wanes, Emissions Trading Scheme participants were told last week.
Greens slam move to disband Environment Ministry
Fri 20 Feb 2026
The Green Party has joined climate and health advocates in condemning the Government's decision to disestablish the Ministry for the Environment as part of a multi-ministry merger.
Govt’s own modelling shows LNG leads to higher electricity prices than other solutions
Thu 19 Feb 2026
By Christina Hood | COMMENT: According to modelling conducted by Concept Consulting for MBIE, either developing the Tariki gas storage facility or managing electricity demand would deliver lower wholesale electricity prices than the Government’s preferred solution of an LNG import terminal.
Govt's solar on farms initiative to cut costs, boost resilience
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Farms across Aotearoa will begin installing solar panels and battery systems as part of a government-backed demonstration programme designed to test whether on-farm renewable energy can reduce electricity costs and improve energy security for the food and fibre sector.
Annual emissions fell to lowest in 15 years in Sept 2025
5 Feb 2026
By Pattrick Smellie | New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions fell to their lowest annual total in the year to September 2025 since records began 2010, according to Statistics New Zealand data published this morning.
NZ could become ‘dumping ground’ for dirty vehicles: Commissioner
16 Dec 2025
By Liz Kivi | Simon Upton, Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, has warned the Government that its changes to the clean car standard could turn the country into a dumping ground for high emitting cars, making future emissions budgets harder to achieve.
Slash for cash turns storm debris into jobs and climate resilience
Thu 19 Feb 2026
A community-led initiative in Tairāwhiti is transforming storm-damaged forestry slash into jobs, soil regeneration and long-term climate resilience.
Kiwi startup takes on global plastic pollution
12 Feb 2026
A New Zealand startup is launching what it says is the world’s first plastic-free effervescent drink tablet, with the ambitious aim of eliminating bottled beverages to reduce global plastic pollution.
