It strongly reminds me of the advice Simon Upton and officials (including me) were giving to the Cabinet back in 1994, almost 30 years ago.

Today, the Commission argues that “we must ensure we are reducing our gross emissions from all sources as much as possible and as soon as possible, rather than solely relying on offsetting our climate pollution”; and that “there is a high risk that relying too heavily on carbon removals from forests will undermine the gross emissions reductions that New Zealand needs to maintain net zero long-lived emissions post-2050.”

What of the advice offered around July 1994? Back then, Cabinet agreed conditionally to a carbon tax, on the advice of Simon Upton as Minister for the Environment, the Ministry for the Environment and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and against the advice of Treasury and the Ministry of Commerce (the precursor of MBIE). At the time, it was made clear by Mr Upton and officials that relying on forest carbon sinks to achieve much of NZ’s net target for 2000 was a short-term strategy, and that carbon mitigation measures (especially renewable energy development and energy efficiency) were vital to cut gross emissions. In a public speech of 14 September 1994, Upton stated: “No-one is arguing sinks are the whole answer. Sinks won’t last indefinitely – our credit is likely to run out by around 2020, or perhaps a bit later if emissions grow more slowly.”

While there are of course a range of other arguments which were made then and subsequently about not relying too much on forest sinks, it is very clear that warning bells were being sounded about forest sequestration back then. We should listen to Dr Carr’s advice now.

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Ralph Chapman is Adjunct Professor at Te Herenga Waka - Victoria University of Wellington