The commission has released a series of stark warnings in its latest report, the six-yearly national climate change risk assessment, released today, calling for action to minimise the multi-billion dollar cost of delaying climate resilience measures.

The report looks at 37 risks and identifies the 10 most significant, which are already seriously affecting people, or will soon, and where acting soon can have the biggest impact:

Key infrastructure risks

• Water infrastructure

• Buildings

• Road and rail networks

Nature and the bioeconomy risks

• Ecosystems and biodiversity 

• Forestry

Watchlist: Agriculture and horticulture

Communities and safety risks

• Social and community wellbeing

• Emergency management

• Ngā mea hirahira o te ao Māori – risks in the Māori world

Decisions and funding risks

• Central and local government funding

• Decision-making and delivery

The Government is legally required to address these risks within two years in its next national adaptation plan.

Climate Change Commission chief executive Jo Hendy told Carbon News that one of the surprises in compiling the report's 137 pages was how much we're already living the experience of climate change in New Zealand now.

“That's the really big change, I think, that's happened over the last 10 years. When you look back, 15 years ago, we were getting a big storm every month. Now it's getting up to every eight days, and we're really seeing people grappling with all of that disruption from more storms and floods.

“The first few months of this year, we've just been hammered by storm after storm. So you can really see it.

“I think it can feel really big and overwhelming. But what we are seeing is a lot of community adaptation initiatives around the country. And really what we want to see is support in policy settings to help scale that up.”

Hendy says the big takeaway she wants everyone to get from the report is the need for a forward-thinking response. “We're stuck in a react-and-recover cycle and we really need to get proactive. That means prioritising and the sooner we act, the more choices we actually have and the lower the cost. Delay just keeps on increasing cost and takes away the choices we have.”

Forestry risk

Forestry is listed as one of the most significant risks, becoming more vulnerable to storms, fires, and to pests into the future. “This can both increase risk to communities from erosion and impacts from storms but also it increases risks to our carbon store that we're relying on for our emissions reductions,” Hendy says.

She says a key point is that there are limits to how much we can adapt to a changing climate.

“Actually some of this is about global emissions. It's in our best interests to support and contribute to global efforts to limit global emissions, so that we actually stop the impacts of climate getting significantly worse."

In previous advice, the commission has highlighted design flaws in the emissions trading scheme. “We have pointed to the risk that, by the third emissions budget – where forestry removals are around 50%. When you concentrate your efforts so much in one sector, you're creating risk.”

However, it’s not all bad news in the report. “The real positive thing is actually what we're seeing at that community level. So there is a lot going on.

“People are mucking in and trying to nut out what they can do in their area. What's critical is we get those policy settings and the supports in place so that scales up.”

Hendy points to the commission’s Northland case study, which shows community level initiatives around emergency response, securing water supply, and food security.

Climate hazards will increasingly affect water

Water infrastructure is at the top of the commission’s list of the most significant risks, including drinking water infrastructure, stormwater and sewage – all critical to human health as well as our economy

The report says that climate change will put increasing pressure on every part of this system, which is already under strain, with much of the infrastructure already degraded.

“The impacts may include service failures and pollution that affect the health of people and the environment and disrupt the connection of iwi/Māori to wai (water).

“Drinking water pipelines are exposed to river and surface flooding, and drinking  water supplies face increasing stress from drought, declining water quality, and higher  temperatures. Rising seas, coastal flooding and more frequent and intense rainfall  events threaten wastewater and stormwater networks.”

As climate hazards continue to intensify, water services will be increasingly affected. For daily life, this could mean more service interruptions, boil water notices, or burst pipes, with flow-on risks to rivers and beaches, lost productivity for businesses and communities, and public health implications. 

Some communities could even face the eventual withdrawal of services.

“Major reforms are underway to how it is managed, and present an important opportunity to plan for and embed resilience to climate hazards,” the report says.

However, without effective action, this major risk will become “extreme” by 2050, which could mean a total loss of system functionality.

Forestry adaptation ‘critical’

The commission says that coordinated adaptation in forestry is critical to protect both the country’s primary carbon store and the sector’s economic contribution, which is currently worth about $6 billion, and growing.

Adapting forestry practices in the face of more frequent and more intense weather events is also vital for reducing soil, vegetation and debris from forestry operations washing into waterways and floodwaters.

While people in the sector are aware of the physical effects of climate change on managed and production forests, only limited steps have been taken to build a response to climate threats.

“The incremental progress to date has not been enough to drive effective adaptation for a sector with 20-plus-year timeframes. Most of the industry focus related to climate change has been on carbon removals rather than adaptation,” the report says.

The commission notes that recent growth in forest area is partly fuelled by the country’s climate policy, with successive governments incentivising tree planting to sequester carbon to meet emissions reduction targets.

“Carbon stored in forests is not permanent, however, meaning these removals are threatened when the forests themselves are at risk.” the commission says. “The consequences of widespread disease outbreaks, catastrophic wildfires, or damaging extreme weather events for forest carbon stores are serious enough to demand focused adaptation action.” 

The commission’s next emissions monitoring report is due in July and its second assessment of the National Adaptation Plan is due in August.