The aim of the ‘roadmap’ was to build on an agreement made at COP28 in Dubai, in which countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels.

When asked why New Zealand didn’t sign up to this agreement, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts said: “Others led the charge on that issue. We were ready to support a consensus outcome, but ultimately there wasn’t one.

“There is still the COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels which we stand by our commitment on.”

But Bronwyn Hayward, former IPCC lead author and Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Canterbury University, says that it would have been a logical step for New Zealand to back the ‘roadmap’ after signing the transition statement at COP28.

“The next step would be to start implementing this – why would we not join the UK, Ireland and Europe, the Pacific and 83 other states to start putting action behind words?”

Hayward says “hard questions should be asked” about why New Zealand was not standing up alongside its traditional allies and major trading partners.

“About why we found ourselves aligned by default with states like Saudi Arabia and Russia, who repeatedly veto attempts at collective climate progress?”

She says New Zealand faces a stark choice: “Will we back a few large oil states who continue to block progress or will we support the Pacific and our traditional allies?”

Hayward notes that the power bloc of the oil states, unchecked by the USA or China, has slowed global progress and calls are mounting for reform of the COP process, which currently enables a single individual country to veto collective decisions. “One of these reforms might already be found in the compromise that was achieved over who hosts the next COP meeting.”

The Republic of Türkiye had insisted it should chair the next COP, despite reportedly not having the support of most nations. The stalemate was broken with an agreement that Türkiye would be the host nation but the lead negotiator would come from Australia, in the form of Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, with a pre-COP meeting hosted by the Pacific.

“The Pacific small island states have been masterful in keeping a focus on the impact of 1.5 degrees of warming,” Hayward says. “It will be important that New Zealand supports the Pacific to use this new arrangement in effective ways to press their case.”

“While the cost of living is a real and immediate problem for many nations, more and more and more governments  are realising that if they fail to act to protect their communities from the costs and loss of life involved [in] climate disasters they will also be judged very harshly by voters."

Supply-side agreement to wind down fossil fuels ‘vital’

David Hall, co-founder and executive director of Toha Network and an IPCC contributing author, recently returned from COP30, wasn’t surprised New Zealand didn’t sign up to the push for a ‘roadmap.’

“New Zealand's absence from the list is disappointing, but not surprising, given the government's position on oil and gas exploration. By reversing the suspension of offshore permits, the current government is not acting consistently with the idea of a fossil fuels phase-out, so could not have been a good faith signatory in any case.

“But I hope that Brazil succeeds in using the remainder of its COP30 presidency to strengthen the global case for this roadmap, because a supply-side agreement to wind down fossil fuels is a vital complement to demand-side momentum in clean technology.”

Hall says Australia losing COP31 hosting rights to Türkiye is a major failure from the perspective of the Pacific region. “It is made all the more galling by unforced errors from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Aside from not fronting up in Belém in person, he also gave needless concessions in public remarks, weakening the position of his own negotiators.

“I feel most sorry for the Pacific Island nations, who face existential risks from sea level rise, for losing an opportunity to play a more prominent role in shaping the narrative of COP31.”

Unstoppable?

Kay Harrison, adjunct senior fellow at Canterbury University, who was New Zealand Climate Change Ambassador from 2019 to 2024, says the call for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels represents a significant new avenue for progress.

“More than 80 countries have articulated what we need from the COP process – a tangible way to deliver what we agreed at COP28 i.e. that the world IS transitioning away from fossil fuels.

“What the 80 plus are calling for is a road map. This sounds to me like an unstoppable demand and it comes from (among others) our closest neighbours in the Pacific as well as some heavyweight producers of fossil fuels like Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

“No one will have been surprised that New Zealand did not join that call.”

She notes that Brazil’s COP President has pledged to continue supporting the work to develop that roadmap. “He’ll also support work on a roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation.”

Harrison says that COP30 proved that multilateralism still remains the world’s best option for fighting climate change. “COP30 didn’t - and no COP will ever - ‘solve’ climate change. But the COP made important decisions and opened new avenues for progress that we may well see eventuate perhaps as soon as next year at COP31.”

Ignoring science?

Ralph Sims, Massey University Professor Emeritus in energy studies, who is also a former IPCC author and Nobel Peace Prize co-recipient, told Carbon News that NZ siding with the Middle East and others on fossil fuels is “no surprise” given current climate and energy policies.

“[The] Minister's speech endorsing a need for urgency, stating how good progress has been made since Paris, and how good NZ has been to do its bit, somehow ignored that emissions continue to rise, recent NZ climate policies have been heavily criticised internally and internationally, the ETS price has crashed, there has been no climate leadership evident to encourage people and businesses to reduce carbon footprints, we support more fossil fuels, and insurance claims from recent extreme weather events in NZ have escalated.

“How come politicians can so easily ignore the science and the evidence?” he asks. 

“It was good Minister Simon Watts was able to travel all that way for him to accept the ‘fossil of the day’ award that NZ won once again, this time for lowering our methane reduction  target,” Sims says. “He was also, I imagine, pleased to meet with the Middle East country delegates and support them in not wanting to reduce fossil fuel demand – or mention those words!

“Maybe he has forgotten the recent extreme weather events in NZ and elsewhere.”

Sims says that Australia’s losing bid to host COP 31 is disappointing for Pacific Island nations. “However, given [Australia’s] climate policies and high [use and export] of fossil fuels, I wouldn't have voted for them!”

Progress: Watts

Fresh from the conference, Watts told Carbon News that COP30 was about implementing the Paris Agreement. “There was progress, including on finance, which is important to our Pacific neighbours, as well as on adaptation, several technical issues, and keeping a focus on countries emissions reduction targets.”

He said that COP30 showed that countries are coming together and advancing climate action – even in a difficult global environment. “It reinforced that the multilateral system for climate change cooperation works, including through the deal Australia struck with Türkiye on COP31.

“COPs aren’t just about negotiations – they are a chance to strengthen the partnerships that will help New Zealand’s transition to a low emission and climate resilient economy. While in Brazil I signed new arrangements with several partners and met international counter partners to do exactly that.”

This included the:

• UK-New Zealand clean energy partnership: memorandum of cooperation

• Letter of Intent Between Indonesia and New Zealand on Climate Change Cooperation

• Memorandum of Arrangement between New Zealand and Iceland on Geothermal Energy Development Cooperation