Of the species assessed, 351 or 31% were classified as highly vulnerable to climate change by the mid-21st century, rising to 746 (65%) by late century.

Anni Brumby, DOC Senior Science Advisor and the report’s lead author, New Zealand is a hotspot for seabirds and known as the world’s seabird capital, which makes the changing climate a global survival issue.

“Seabirds travel internationally, but many depend on New Zealand’s territory for their breeding grounds. When we looked at climate change pressures such as projected sea level rise and warmer temperatures, fifty per cent of seabirds were assessed as highly vulnerable to climate change by mid-century.

“Snares penguin only breeds on one island and may have nowhere to go if climate conditions change drastically.

“Tara iti/fairy tern – New Zealand’s rarest bird – was found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, as projected higher spring tides and increased storm surges could impact their Northland beach breeding ground and warmer temperatures could put additional stress on adults, chicks and eggs.”

All five New Zealand bat species were assessed as vulnerable by the late 21st century. Bats are already under pressure from predators, habitat loss, and human disturbance, which will only get more extreme as climate change progresses.

Many native plants identified as highly vulnerable in the assessment are already critically endangered and confined to rare ecosystems. Most South Island limestone dependent plants were assessed as highly vulnerable, such as the Castle Hill buttercup.

Pīngao, a taonga coastal plant species, is highly vulnerable to projected increases in coastal flooding and sea surges.

Reptiles and frogs already have small, highly fragmented populations. Climate change is predicted to increase the impact of current pressures, including habitat loss and introduced predators. The most vulnerable lizards include both alpine and coastal species.

Alpine invertebrates, including Paparoa tunnelling wētā, were also found to be vulnerable, as they may get increasingly squeezed out of their habitats with nowhere to go as the climate warms.

Anni says the large number of species assessed as highly vulnerable reflects the specialised habitats and threatened status of many native species due to small population sizes, limited distributions, and low reproductive rates.

“DOC’s ongoing work programme is focused on prioritising species and habitats where we can make the most difference. We know that when pressures are managed through tools such as invasive pest eradication, nature is restored and in turn, species and habitats become more resilient in the face of pressures including climate change.

“We also need innovative solutions such as establishing ‘insurance’ populations of rare species that could become extinct in a single extreme weather event and implementing nature-based solutions to help control climate-related erosion, for example.

“This information isn’t only useful for DOC – we also expect that other agencies, environmental NGOs, iwi, and communities will find this valuable data helpful to take action for nature,” Anni says.

DOC will continue its climate change adaptation research with risk assessments underway, focusing on highly vulnerable species to help identify any immediate action needed to prevent irreversible losses.

View the report

Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessments of terrestrial taxa in Aotearoa New Zealand