Under the Paris Agreement, countries define their own pathway to meet the targets all committed to in the Agreement. Every five years these Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are required to be updated, with each update “ratcheting” up commitments until the world is fully on the path to limiting warming to 1.5C, as agreed. The last round of NDCs left a substantial gap between national commitments, and the commitments actually needed to limit warming to safe levels; and few governments fully integrated health throughout their climate plans.

In the lead up to COP29 and in recent days, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates,the UK, and others – all parties to the Paris Agreement – announced the emissions reductions targets they are committing to in their third iterations (NDCs 3.0) of their national climate action plans. The deadline for all countries to submit updated NDCs is February 2025. The UAE, in addition, has delivered its NDC 3.0 in full, as has Brazil.

Several other countries announced aspects of their NDCs 3.0, including Liberia, the Marshall Islands, and Malawi, while Finland called upon G20 countries to show leadership by setting the most ambitious 1.5C-aligned NDCs possible.

“To protect people’s health, we need strong, ambitious and achievable climate commitments”, said Jess Beagley, Policy Lead at the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “While we are already decades behind on action, the UAE, Brazil, the UK, and others have got the ball rolling by announcing their new NDCs, signalling to other countries around the world that updated commitments are required and expected by 2025 – however, NDCs must also build up on the previous submission and reflect the ‘highest possible ambition’.”

“In order to protect populations from catastrophic impacts of climate change, NDCs must be aligned to the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement, also taking into account fair shares based on historical emissions and national wealth”, said Beagley. “The UK has stepped boldly forward by committing to reduce emissions by 81% by 2035, in line with the recommendations of an independent scientific advisory committee, and a setting suitably high target for a high income G20 country. This is an important example of the kind of leadership that is welcome and much needed.”

“The NDCs presented by the UAE and Brazil, however, suggest there is work still to be done to garner commitments that collectively fully deliver the level of emissions reductions needed to protect people’s health”, she added.

“The UAE emissions reduction commitment relies too heavily on dangerous distractions like carbon capture and storage, which while sounding promising, have consistently failed to deliver. In addition, UAE’s stated plans to expand its fossil fuel production are completely out of line with the scientific consensus that there can be no fossil fuel expansion if humanity is to limit warming to safe levels”, continued Beagley.

“While the UAE NDC details spells out its plans for making its healthcare system more resilient, sustainable, and prepared to respond to those threats, no amount of preparation in the health sector will protect people if warming is allowed to continue to increase”, said Beagley. “The UAE has not yet delivered on the core of the assignment, to make emissions reductions commitments in line with its fair share of limiting warming to safe levels of 1.5-2 degrees.”

“COP30 host Brazil has delivered an NDC that falls short of the Paris Agreement’s Article 4 on mitigation, which states that ‘each successive NDC will represent a progression beyond the previous one and reflect the highest possible ambition’, and instead reflects a more moderate pace. More is needed from a country that must show leadership as the COP30 President in 2025”, said Beagley. “For NDC commitments to be sufficiently ambitious to protect health, they must set clear, measurable targets, take account of the major costs of inaction, and embed the health and cost benefits of investing in action”.

“Clearly, countries’ climate commitments must respond to the climate crisis”, said Dr Jeni Miller, Executive Director of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “Communities around the world are already suffering from the impacts of climate change at current levels of warming, while people are suffering and dying from heatwaves, hunger, infectious diseases, and floods, and the mental health consequences of constant exposure to climate threats”.

“Health systems are struggling to keep up with these growing new demands”, added Miller. “Previous national commitments have allowed for emissions levels resulting in the hottest years on record, and putting us at high risk of dangerous tipping points. In this context, the new round of Nationally Determined Contributions are vitally important, a critical juncture for countries to map out and commit to climate action that will protect people’s health and avoid the worst case scenarios of out of control climate change.”

“Right now each country has a real opportunity to roll up the national sleeves and do the work to think through robust NDCs, aligned with Paris Agreement target, that are well-designed to genuinely protect people’s health”, said Miller. “This means cross–sector engagement, and a commitment to follow up the NDC with coherent policy making that builds climate and health into all policies.”

“Successfully reducing greenhouse gas emissions and phasing out fossil fuels is fundamental to delivering a future in which people have the ability to live healthy lives”, said Miller. “Developing NDCs with people’s health and well being as a clear guide for commitments in relation to the health sector and across sectors, include costings and budgets to support these actions, can help governments clarify the stakes of inaction, and the benefits of action, to people’s lives, national economies, and ecological sustainability.”

“The NDCs are a critically important tool, linking global commitments to national plans. The UK is showing much needed real leadership. All the countries that announced their NDC commitments or stepped up to deliver their plans are to be commended for their initiative. But initiative alone is not enough. From the health community, we urge these countries, and all other countries from whom NDCs are due in the coming months, to commit to the climate action needed to fully deliver a healthy and livable future for the people of the world”, concluded Miller.