COMMENT: The islands of Aotearoa New Zealand were the last large land mass in the world to be settled by humans. Skilled sailors and navigators, Māori arrived around 1300 AD. For millions of years previously the only mammals living on the islands were bats and, offshore, some marine species. As we know, it was a land of birds, many of which had evolved to become flightless.

This year our largest and best-known environmental organisation, Forest & Bird, is celebrating 100 years of existence. As part of these celebrations, their popular Bird of the Year competition is being replaced by Bird of the Century. (75 species to choose from, of which 17 are ‘Doing OK’, 53 are ‘in trouble’, and 5 are extinct.)

These are all terrific birds, no doubt about it. But we would like to nominate our own bird: the jet aircraft.

Prior to Covid, domestic and international aviation contributed 12% of total CO2 emissions, and ever-longer international flights had been growing particularly fast, with emissions up 49% in just four years. And now international flights are now ramping up quickly again. The two largest international flows are incoming tourists and outgoing New Zealanders taking holidays and visiting friends and family. And because we have such poor long distance buses and trains, flying internally is also popular. So popular that the chief executives of three of our most important environmental organisations commute to work by plane. (Whatever happened to the old slogan, ‘The personal is the political’?)

And somehow, despite daily news about the climate crisis, we stand on the verge of an unprecedented expansion of airport capacity. Aviation stands out as the only sector of the economy that is actively planning to increase emissions.

Our largest airport, Auckland, has plans to increase passenger traffic from 20 million per year to 40 million by 2044. Wellington wants to go from 6 million per year to 12 million by 2040. At the other end of the country, the masterplan released by Queenstown airport in May 2023 suggests passenger numbers will increase by one third from 2023 to 2033. (Their CEO commented that “Airlines will fly where people want to go. The ability to leave work on a Friday in Sydney… and be in [Queenstown] for dinner, on the ski field the next day, ski all day and be on the plane the next day, there is high appeal in that.”) Nelson airport also plans to double passenger numbers by 2050. There is also a large new international airport proposed at Tarras in Central Otago, which would be New Zealand’s third airport for wide-body jets.

At Forest & Bird’s Centennial conference, Kiri Hannifin, Chief Sustainability Officer at Air New Zealand, talked about its decarbonisation plans.  In an honest assessment, Hannifin told the conference, “We can’t keep going with the status quo given the harm that we’re seeing now in a 1.2 ºC world which, as you can see in Europe, is intolerable.” And that offsets are not the answer: “You cannot plant enough trees to offset your flight.”

Air New Zealand is being guided by the Science-Based Targets Initiative. This aims to provide climate-safe benchmarks for corporates. Consistent with the IPCC pathways and IEA NZE, the SBTi cross-sector pathway reduces gross emissions by at least 42% by 2030. Air New Zealand’s target is to reduce emissions intensity 28.9% by 2030. It is not at all clear how this will be achieved: electric planes and sustainable aviation fuel are discussed, even if not potentially available at scale for many years. Air New Zealand is also committed to not knowingly using biofuels from crops or palm oil. But Hannifin suggested airlines cannot do this on their own.

“We’ve done the roadmap, the board’s signed it off, we need a lot of people to help us, governments in particular, we need to be regulated, we need to be regulated, so that’s good when businesses are asking to be regulated, right?”

So how do we get this regulation?

Strengthening the Zero Carbon Act and the Emissions Reduction Plan is our best bet. The Climate Change Commission is preparing to advise on bringing international aviation into this framework, and the government has signed several international agreements pledging ambitious action.

While many new technologies will be tried, including new aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels, they will not be easy, quick, or cheap; we are doubtful that they can be delivered in time, or that all airlines will bring them in voluntarily. Rock solid regulation is needed, including an end to air travel’s current tax-exempt status and a strictly falling cap on emissions. And until that is in place, there must be a moratorium on airport expansions.

The admirable pūkeko. PHOTO: Sid Mosdell

Forest & Bird is right to be alarmed that so many New Zealand birds are threatened. Climate change threatens almost every bird, plant, human and life form in New Zealand. To help them, stop making the problem worse.

Adapting to New Zealand conditions, the kiwi became flightless. Perhaps instead of the kiwi, New Zealanders should look to the pūkeko for inspiration. Having self-introduced from Australia a few hundred years ago, pūkeko certainly know how to fly. But they prefer to walk.

Robert McLachlan is a New Zealand mathematician and Distinguished Professor at Massey University’s School of Fundamental Sciences. Paul Callister is a climate change policy researcher at Te Herenga Waka Victoria University’s Institute for Governance and Policy Studies.