You’d think that for most people who believe that climate change is real and want to use their vote to do something about it that would be enough to rule her out of contention.

But the NZ Initiative’s chief economist, Eric Crampton, took to Twitter to say that shouldn’t necessarily be so.

“Since urban emissions are in the ETS, it doesn't really matter whether a mayor wants emissions to go up or down. National net emissions are invariant to mayoral preferences,” Crampton wrote

It’s a point he hammers home regularly. If it’s in the Emissions Trading Scheme, he says, individual actions or carbon emission reduction subsidies will make no difference to total emissions. They’re set by the cap.

So, how should someone who wants to see their council make a real difference in the climate space choose who to vote for?

“The main thing that voters should remember is the very specific role local government can and must play in responding to the challenge of climate change,” Crampton says.

“Some things, only councils can really do. Other things, councils should leave to central government. Not mixing these up will matter.”

He says the ETS cap will drive net emissions down to zero by 2050 and that will result in higher carbon prices.

The job of councils is to respond to the changes brought about by those higher carbon prices and their impact on how people want to live and get around.

“They should be planning the infrastructure that residents will want when carbon is $200/tonne, rather than $80/tonne.

“They should be setting zoning to be flexible to changing needs. And their own financial planning will have to account for higher carbon prices. Best choices in vehicle fleet replacement may be different when carbon is a lot more expensive.,” he says.

In short, the council’s job is to respond intelligently to the market signals being sent by the price of carbon.

He questions whether efforts to cut food waste can be justified.

“Are we sure that this is more cost-effective for councils than better methane capture systems at landfills, or even able to reduce emissions by less than expected carbon charges?

“Emissions from landfill are covered by the ETS. If a tonne of CO2-equivalent coming out of a landfill will wind up costing council $200, would it cost $20 or $2000 to achieve similar reductions in methane emissions through food waste initiatives and green waste collection?”

“My single greatest worry with local councils and climate change is that they are focused on entirely the wrong things, Transport is in the ETS, along with all urban emissions. But Greater Wellington Regional Council is aiming to effectively ban new subdivisions, while citing climate change as a rationale. If the ban goes ahead, it will do nothing to progress reductions in net emissions but will instead entrench high property prices, even for downtown apartments,”

The ETS can’t do it alone

Massey University emeritus professor of sustainable energy and climate mitigation Ralph Sims says there’s much more interest and concern about climate change this election than the last one.

“There is also a greater awareness by present councillors on the need to take action.”

But, he says, that in the past that hasn’t always translated into people or councillors taking concrete actions to cut emissions.

Sims has little time for the idea that the market alone will see us making the cuts to emissions that are necessary.

He says few people have any idea of how much extra they’re paying as a result of the ETS.  “It’s totally ineffective in regard to changing behaviours.”

“How many car drivers realise that when they’re buying petrol or diesel at the current $80/t CO2 the ETS payment passed on from the oil companies equates to ~ 20c/l?”

“Even if the 'carbon levy' paid was identified on the receipt, as I have been advocating for years, it would probably make little difference to many people how they drive their car to save fuel (typically by 10-20%)  or the choice made when purchasing their next vehicle.”

Sims says that when he asks people how they’ve cut their own carbon footprint the most common response is they recycle their waste.

“This didn’t happen from offering financial incentives (as in the ETS) but from local council regulations and services.”

He says one of the biggest challenges remains convincing people of the need for change.

“Any local government’s decisions on infrastructure investment in cycleways, reduced car parking, lowering road speeds, tightening building insulation requirements, improving local air quality etc are often met with major criticisms by those who will be affected.

“Most people don’t have a vision for the future and hence cannot manage or contemplate change.”

He says densification of urban areas to make suburbs more walkable and cyclable should be a priority for anyone serious about tackling climate change.

“The emission reduction benefits from this were clearly identified in IPCC 5^th Assessment Report (2014) where we first had a chapter on ‘Human Settlements – infrastructure and spatial planning’,”  says Sims – a former IPCC author.

So what, in Sims view, should climate aware voters be looking for of the candidates?

• It’s easy for anyone to state they believe in climate change and accept we need to do something, so outlining some tangible, well considered and practical solutions should be sought.
• An acceptance that every council decision should be heavily scrutinised for its potential impacts on GHG emissions and future risks from climate impacts.
• An understanding that any new building or infrastructure developments must consider climate impacts – eg in flood plains, near hillsides at risk of slipping, on along the coast.
• Agreement that any risks of climate impacts be listed on every building’s LIM report.
• Understanding the resistance to change by the majority and hence the need for education and consultation to better explain to residents why climate-related changes have to be made and the cost is warranted (eg increasing stormwater drain capacity, more water storage, installing water meters, supporting and encouraging active transport modes).

Commitment to rail

Climate change researcher Paul Callister says he’ll be supporting candidates that are committed to giving space over from roads for cycling and walking infrastructure.

And as a spokesperson for Save Our Trains, Callister, is not surprisingly, keen to see candidates expressing support for bringing back inter-regional trains and electrifying the remains of the main trunk line.

He says if candidates wanted to show their support for carbon emission reductions, they could express support for reducing their council’s international air travel to a bare minimum.

International aviation is not in the ETS, so reductions in international flights will definitely lead to lower global emissions.

Eric Crampton says it would make sense to requre councils to offset emission from international aviation to ensure carbon costs are accounted for when deciding on whether to travel or not. 

He says that would prune out any low-value travel while ensuring that important trips can still be made.