Markets: Analysis
Will govt’s light touch approach lead to higher carbon prices?
3 Oct 2025
By Liz Kivi | Carbon market watchers are hoping the government’s plan for the electricity sector will eventually lead to higher carbon prices, with the secondary market still trading sideways for the longest time in its history.
Carbon price steady after failed quarterly auction
16 Sep 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price has continued to trade in its familiar moribund range in the high $50s following last week’s failed quarterly auction, with ample supply still trading on the secondary market at about $10 below this year’s $68 auction floor.
Carbon market still weak despite govt confirming tighter auction supply
28 Aug 2025
By Liz Kivi | The government’s commitment to keeping Emissions Trading Scheme auction volumes tight to 2030 has done little to buoy carbon prices, with an underwhelming response from the market following last week’s announcement.
Carbon prices slide as market awaits ETS decision
1 Aug 2025
By Liz Kivi | Volatility has returned to the secondary carbon market, with prices sliding again after plateauing in recent weeks, as the market waits for government decisions on Emissions Trading Scheme settings.
NZ voluntary carbon market’s sad state
14 Jul 2025
By John O’Brien | OPINION: A combination of scandals, challenging economic times, and cheaper offshore carbon credits, mean that the domestic voluntary carbon market in New Zealand remains absolutely tiny.
Bearish sentiment lingers for carbon market
11 Jul 2025
By Liz Kivi | The compliance carbon market could be set for a gradual upward trajectory, however unsold volume from the quarterly Emissions Trading Scheme auctions continues to act as ‘a price ceiling,’ according to an expert.
Carbon credits stockpile down: latest figures
7 Jul 2025
By Liz Kivi | The number of NZUs held in private accounts, often called "the stockpile", dropped 11 million tonnes in the past year, according to the latest figures.
Carbon price grinds higher - where to from now?
30 Jun 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price has continued to grind slowly higher since this month’s failed auction, with prices at their highest since March, although still languishing well below this year’s auction floor price.
Carbon auction fails again
18 Jun 2025
By Liz Kivi | As predicted, today’s carbon auction failed to attract any bidders, with the secondary market languishing at nearly 20% below the minimum auction price.
Carbon auction odds-on to fail
13 Jun 2025
By Liz Kivi | The carbon price has rallied slightly in recent weeks, however with secondary market prices still hovering around the $57 mark, well below this year’s $68 auction floor price, next week’s Emissions Trading Scheme auction looks set to fail.
Forecast points to a significant drop in NZU stockpile in 2026
21 May 2025
By Clive Bradbury | ANALYSIS: The Crown’s latest forecasts of supply and demand suggest we could see a significant drop in the NZU stockpile in 2026, with uncertainty around forestry playing a large part in the equation.
Carbon price up but June auction still tipped to fail
15 May 2025
The carbon price has recovered somewhat as forestry selling eases, however NZUs are still changing hands on the secondary market at well below the $68 auction floor.
Broker urges govt to reject Climate Commission’s advice
2 May 2025
The Climate Change Commission's recommendation to increase carbon auction volumes risks undermining market confidence, distorting price discovery, and weakening the Emission Trading Scheme's core function, according to Marex.
Experts question Climate Commission’s advice
30 Apr 2025
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice on Emissions Trading Scheme auction settings is lacking important information, and fails to take into account the commission’s own advice to update the country’s climate targets, says an expert.
Carbon price slumps for fourth week in a row
29 Apr 2025
Carbon prices on the secondary market dropped for the fourth consecutive week last week, with NZUs changing hands at $20 below this year’s auction floor price of $68.
Commission’s plan to increase ETS auction units could lead to lower prices
24 Apr 2025
Experts are criticising the Climate Change Commission’s proposal to increase the amount of carbon units available at auction, while the market is still plagued by low prices and seems oversupplied.
Moribund carbon price underlines Emissions Trading Scheme’s low integrity
22 Apr 2025
By Liz Kivi | Experts are blaming declining carbon prices on weak policy settings and the government’s unwillingness to tackle continuing problems with the Emissions Trading Scheme.
Carbon price nosedives
16 Apr 2025
The carbon price graph dropped off a cliff yesterday, down 6% overnight to a ten-month low amidst continued selling from forest owners.
ETS surplus volume likely to be reducing too slowly - new analysis
14 Apr 2025
Excess carbon units in the Emissions Trading Scheme - the ‘surplus’ in privately held accounts - look to be reducing more slowly than the Climate Change Commission's targeted annual reductions, according to new analysis.
ETS stockpile up nearly 7 million
8 Apr 2025
The stockpile of privately held Emissions Trading Scheme pollution permits increased 6.7 million to 157.1 million units in the three months to March 31, according to figures released by the Environmental Protection Authority yesterday.
Carbon market increasingly volatile
1 Apr 2025
Last week was 2025’s most volatile so far for the carbon market, with units changing hands below $60 all week, and even trading down to the low $50s.
Carbon price drops to 6-month low
26 Mar 2025
By Liz Kivi | The New Zealand Unit spot price has fallen dramatically in the wake of last week’s declined auction, with the Carbon News NZU Index closing at $54.67 yesterday, down 10% from prices above $60 at the start of last week.
Greens call for agriculture in, forestry out of ETS
20 Mar 2025
Yesterday's failed Emission's Trading Scheme auction is 'another indictment' on the government's climate credibility, says Green Party co-leader and climate change spokesperson Chloe Swarbrick.
First ETS auction of the year fails
19 Mar 2025
The first Emissions Trading Scheme auction of 2025 has failed to sell any 'pollution permits,' with all 1.5 million NZUs rolling over to the June auction.
Tomorrow's ETS auction likely 'non-event'
18 Mar 2025
The spot price in the compliance carbon market dropped even further at the end of last week, with market watchers predicting that tomorrow's auction is odds-on to sell nothing.
What next for carbon prices?
12 Mar 2025
NZUs are still hovering well below the auction price floor, with collateral due to be lodged by today for participants in the first Emissions Trading Scheme auction of 2025, on March 19.
Carbon auction unlikely to clear as spot price drops
11 Mar 2025
The carbon price on the spot market has dropped to its lowest level since December, with the first ETS auction of the year less than a week away now unlikely to sell any units at all.
Updates to ETS auction collateral methodology
27 Feb 2025
The Government has updated the NZ ETS Auctions collateral methodology effective from 19 March 2025.
Will March's carbon auction clear?
24 Feb 2025
With carbon prices on the secondary market trading in a tight range below the minimum auction price, it seems increasingly unlikely that March's Emissions Trading Scheme auction will clear.
Secondary market remains flat as carbon auction approaches
14 Feb 2025
With the first carbon auction of the year just over a month away, one broker is predicting trading will continue at prices below this year's $68 auction floor price.
Carbon price up - but still too low to drive decarbonisation
24 Jan 2025
Carbon prices on the secondary market went above the $64 mark yesterday for the first time since December’s partial auction clearance.
Emissions trading scheme surplus over-estimated, says EY
20 Dec 2024
The emissions trading scheme has about 22% fewer surplus units than government figures suggest, according to a new report.
What should carbon offsets really cost?
20 Dec 2024
By Jamie Heather | COMMENT: Today’s carbon prices would seem absurd in any other context.
Carbon market heading towards increased price tension?
17 Dec 2024
The carbon price has made a partial recovery, as new analysis shows greater tension in New Zealand's emissions trading scheme than current prices suggest.
Carbon price dips as dust settles after auction
10 Dec 2024
The carbon price has taken a dive since last week’s auction, down more than 6% on last week’s auction price.
Carbon price steady following partial auction clearance
5 Dec 2024
The carbon price stayed steady on the secondary market following yesterday’s partial auction clearance, where 7 million NZUs went unsold.
Final auction of the year partially clears
4 Dec 2024
More than 7 million pollution permits will fail to enter the register this year, with just under half of a possible 14.1 million units selling across all the Emissions Trading Scheme carbon auctions this year.
Auction preview: experts predict partial clearance tomorrow
3 Dec 2024
The secondary carbon market is trading just above the $64 auction floor, as tomorrow’s highly anticipated auction looms - the fourth and final of 2024.
Partial clearance possible at December auction
22 Nov 2024
The carbon price is hitting up against the $64 auction floor on the secondary market, with the government’s final quarterly auction for the year now less than two weeks away.
Carbon price predicted to rise after upcoming auction
14 Nov 2024
OPINION: Are NZUs set for a bump after the December auction? Nigel Brunel, managing director Marex New Zealand, thinks so.
Carbon price inching up as auction looms
7 Nov 2024
The carbon price is still inching up towards the auction floor, with the final auction for 2024 less than a month away. But the US election result means uncertain times for global environmental markets, according to an expert.
Verra’s plan to review carbon credits faster with fewer staff raises integrity concerns
4 Nov 2024
Verra’s new CEO said that “faster does not equal to compromise on integrity” – but independent carbon market experts are sceptical.
Stockpile and forestry set to drive carbon price
23 Oct 2024
Stockpile holders will have the power to set the NZU price in future, as the importance of the government’s carbon auctions wanes, Emissions Trading Scheme participants were told last week.
Increased volatility as carbon price inches up towards auction floor
11 Oct 2024
The secondary carbon market saw a slight increase in volatility last week, with carbon trading platform Jarden noting higher volumes above the $62 mark.
Market looks to tomorrow’s carbon auction
3 Sep 2024
The carbon price crept up last week, as the market had its second-biggest month of traded volume ahead of tomorrow’s auction, with some commentators saying it’s a done deal that the auction will fail.
Reported emissions down, carbon market up
28 Aug 2024
The Environmental Protection Authority published the latest Emissions Trading Scheme data on emissions and removals earlier this month, with reported emissions down overall, while reported removals increased.
Carbon market buoyed by ETS settings announcement
21 Aug 2024
The carbon price shot up yesterday, following the government’s announcement it would reduce auction supply of carbon credits by more than half.
Govt slashes ETS auction volumes
20 Aug 2024
The government has slashed Emissions Trading Scheme auction volumes from next year, following the Climate Change Commission’s advice to reduce the amount of units on offer at auction by more than half.
NZAS agrees further reductions to help ease energy constraint
20 Aug 2024
Media Release | New Zealand’s Aluminium Smelter (NZAS) at Tiwai has agreed to reduce electricity consumption by another 20 megawatts (MW) to further help New Zealand’s national grid, as the energy squeeze continues.
Carbon futures offer new opportunity for forest owners
1 Aug 2024
By Liz Kivi | The first few days of trade for Australian and New Zealand carbon futures contracts on the Australian Securities Exchange got off to a slow start since launching on Monday.
NZ abstains from vote on global shipping carbon tax
Wed 22 Oct 2025
By Shannon Morris-Williams | The Government says it held back from endorsing the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework over fears the plan could raise costs for exporters and importers.
Wet spring lifts gentailers into strongest start since 2021
Wed 22 Oct 2025
New Zealand’s main electricity generators head into summer with lake levels well above average and wholesale prices holding firm, setting up a strong start to the 2026 financial year and easing price pressure after two years of volatile supply.
Council buys dairy farm to help clean up Lake Rotorua
Tue 21 Oct 2025
Bay of Plenty Regional Council has bought a 266-hectare dairy farm in the Lake Rotorua catchment and plans to retire it from production to reduce nitrogen entering the lake.
Govt releases updated emissions projections
13 Oct 2025
By Liz Kivi | The Ministry for the Environment has released updated emissions projections to 2050, which show significant differences to the Climate Change Commission's recent projections for the same period.
NZ’s government wants tourism to drive economic growth – but how will it deal with aviation emissions?
Wed 22 Oct 2025
By Robert McLachlan, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University | Following a brief dip during the COVID pandemic, aviation is back in a growth phase.
Emails show forestry lobby fought Gisborne crackdown as slash clean-up drags on
26 Sep 2025
By Shannon Morris-Williams | Sustainable land use advocates are accusing Eastland Wood Council of stonewalling efforts to tighten forestry rules, after correspondence between the group and the local council was released under the Official Information Act.
Govt to ease climate reporting thresholds, water down liability
Wed 22 Oct 2025
By Pattrick Smellie | The rollback of climate change reporting requirements has produced a wave of relief in corporate New Zealand as managed investment funds and listed companies with annual revenue under $1 billion are exempted.
