The ‘Tech-Renewable Leap’ concept would also hugely accelerate NZ’s progress towards its climate change goals.

The plan seeks to position decarbonisation of the NZ economy as a response to oil dependency and global energy market price shocks as much, if not more than, climate change.

The Sustainable Business Council report follows months of consultation among dozens of NZ businesses and analytical work by consulting firm Sapere, including detailed economic modelling.

Its findings rely on the country adopting stable energy policies over the long term – a missing ingredient at present – and harnessing both digital and agricultural technologies more effectively.

“We estimate that the first phase of a transition to an innovation-driven, low-emissions economy could deliver an increase of $22 billion in GDP by 2035, rising to more than $33 billion per year by 2050, compared to an economy that only relies on the current carbon price path.

“This scale of uplift would be sufficient to move New Zealand from where it has fallen at the lower tier of OECD growth performance, back to the middle of the pack.”

However, shifting central government policies, particularly those that have undermined the emissions trading scheme, were a major problem.

“The binding constraint is … policy certainty and coherency over the medium term,” says the report, which assumes that the high-growth, low-carbon opportunity would allow carbon prices to rise to levels that would reward emissions reductions.

Its ‘business-as-usual’ base case assumes the carbon prices that underpin the government’s Emissions Reduction Plan 2, which would see carbon rise to $80 a tonne by 2030 and fall away to $54 by 2050.

The ‘Tech-Renewable Leap’ follows the ‘shadow’ carbon price used by the Treasury, which assumes carbon at $90 to $100 by the mid-2020s and $170 to $180 by 2050.

Under that assumption, emissions would by “an additional 6% annual reductions by 2035 and 22% by 2050, largely due to agritech breakthroughs, electrification, and cleaner industrial and transport systems”, the report finds.

Despite presuming no price on agricultural emissions, the report suggests that agritech would produce the largest and earliest gains, with advanced manufacturing catching up as the country approaches its goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

“In the Tech-Renewable Leap world, most of the emissions reductions occur in agriculture, followed by land transport, manufacturing and electricity. The emissions reductions in agriculture are significantly driven by technological advancements in low-emissions breeding and methane vaccines.

“An integrated ‘Tech Renewable Leap’, combining electrification, digital adoption and agritech innovation could deliver … a projected $22 billion per year GDP uplift by 2035 and $33 billion per year by 2050,” the report says.

Cumulatively, that adds some $540 billion to annual GDP within 24 years, in an economy in which was measured at $453 billion nominal GDP in 2025.

“These gains are driven by a reinforcing engine working together: stable and enduring policies, abundant renewable energy, accelerated innovation and productivity, and a credible carbon price,” the SBC report says.

These were “deliberately conservative” estimates, said SBC chief executive, Mike Burrell. For example, the plan does not include any estimates of a role for low-carbon hydrogen for industrial heat or fertiliser manufacturing.

Uptake of digital technology to drive efficiency is a key part of the plan.

So, too, is a “public-private ‘energy efficient process heat’ partnership to reduce industrial dependence on imported fuel, unlock electrification and other low carbon sources of energy to serve industrial process heat by converting an ambitious but realistic percentage of existing fossil-based process heat to low carbon, digitally enabled alternatives”.

Transport sector electrification required a joint government-business national fleet resilience plan “to decarbonise our transport system as insurance against future fuel shocks”.

“This should include coordinated electrification roadmaps for heavy freight, light vehicles and public transport, while recognising the potential of alternative fuels.”

NZ should also “maintain pace with international expectations for sustainable fuel use in aviation and shipping”.

On improving the ETS, the report says NZ needs “a strong and predictable market-based carbon price that creates the incentives necessary for decarbonisation, while delivering productivity gains”.